Forecasts on Immigration 2028 and BeyondThis is a featured page

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A. Baseline future – projections, assumptions

Variable 2000 2050 Percent Change
Size 275 million 439 million 59% increase
% over 65 14% 20% 42% increase
% Foreign-born 11% 15% 28% increase
Ethnicity of Foreign-born


% European 13% -- This ratio is
% Hispanic 53% -- expected to remain
% Asian 25% -- very similar


The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse as non-Hispanic one single-race whites will make up less than 50% of the population while Hispanics will make up 30% by 2050. So, one in three people in the US will be Hispanic. Also, the US will be much older, by mid-century, according to projections released by the U.S. Census Bureau this year. There will be nearly one person of working age for every person older or younger than working age.

  • Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54% minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children.
  • In 2030, when all of the baby boomers will be 65 and older, nearly one in five U.S. residents is expected to be 65 and older. This age group is projected to increase to 88.5 million in 2050, more than doubling the number in 2008 (38.7 million).
  • Similarly, the 85 and older population is expected to more than triple, from 5.4 million to 19 million between 2008 and 2050.
  • By 2050, the minority population — everyone except for non-Hispanic, single-race whites — is projected to be 235.7 million out of a total U.S. population of 439 million. The nation is projected to reach the 400 million population milestone in 2039.
  • The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46% of the total population in 2050, down from 66%t in 2008.
  • Meanwhile, the Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008-2050 period. Its share of the nation’s total population is projected to double, from 15% to 30%. Thus, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic.
  • The black population is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14% of the population in 2008, to 65.7 million, or 15% in 2050.
  • The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million. Its share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1% to 9.2%.
  • Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives are projected to rise from 4.9 million to 8.6 million (or from 1.6 to 2% of the total population). The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to more than double, from 1.1 million to 2.6 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 5.2 million to 16.2 million.
  • In 2050, the nation’s population of children is expected to be 62% minority, up from 44% today. 39% are projected to be Hispanic (up from 22% in 2008), and 38% are projected to be single-race, non-Hispanic white (down from 56% in 2008).
  • The percentage of the population in the “working ages” of 18 to 64 is projected to decline from 63% in 2008 to 57% in 2050.
  • The working-age population is projected to become more than 50% minority in 2039 and be 55 percent minority in 2050 (up from 34% in 2008). Also in 2050, it is projected to be more than 30% Hispanic (up from 15% in 2008), 15% black (up from 13 percent in 2008) and 9.6% Asian (up from 5.3% in 2008).
http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/012496.html

  • Businesses will go to low-wage areas, and laborers will move to high-wage areas, thus affecting a tendency toward the equalization of wage rates (for the same kind of labor) as well as the optimal localization of capital. An influx of migrants into a given-sized high-wage area will lower nominal wage rates. However, it will not lower real wage rates if the population is below its optimum size. To the contrary, if this is the case, the produced output will increase over-proportionally, and real incomes will actually rise. Thus, restrictions on immigration will harm the protected domestic workers qua consumers more than they gain qua producers. Moreover, immigration restrictions will increase the "flight" of capital abroad (the export of capital which otherwise might have stayed), still causing an equalization of wage rates (although somewhat more slowly), but leading to a less than optimal allocation of capital, thereby harming world living standards all-around http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig/hermann-hoppe1.html.

B. Alternative futures – plausible uncertainties, scenarios

  • If the the amnesty which has been proposed in recent years were granted to the currently illegal population, 11-14 million people, the population projections would show an 80% increase to 500 million or more residents in the US by 2050 compared to a 59% increase under baseline conditions.
  • If illegal immigration were effectively eliminated and legal immigration quotas were set closer to replacement rates, the population may increase by only 25% by 2050.

Social variables which could affect immigration positively or negatively:


  • Greater improvements in life preservation science and other medical advances could increase life expectancy more than the baseline projections which would decrease mortality rates. Such innovations could give greater attention to attitudes that the US is already full and needs to slow or even stop immigration.
  • Americans may also feel pressured to slow or even stop immigration during a time of environmental mitigation. Population size is the determinant of environmental impact. The US population currently has a greater environmental impact per capita than China and India combined. A 59% increase in U.S. population, within a time frame of about three-fifths of an average U.S. lifetime would make mitigation or adjustment to climate change even more difficult for the US.
  • Another social aspect which will need to be addressed in coming decades due to immigration is the US public school system which is already lagging behind most developed nations. Immigration will account for 96 percent of the future increase in the school-age population over the next 50 years. However if the economy grows due to immigration as the economic theory stated in the baseline claims, education facilities should improve accordingly.
  • The issue of immigrants learning English and assimilating into American society has long been a concern of native-born citizens. Still today, second generation immigrants assimilate into American culture even when their parents do not. Third generation immigrants are almost always assimilated even if they cherish their heritage. If immigrants are able to congregate in large enough numbers in any one city, self contained enclaves may prove assimilation into American culture difficult even for the children. This could antagonize the the native-born groups who are concerned. Arguments could also be made that America is a melting pot for the very reason that assimilation is so difficult.


DennisDD
DennisDD
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