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Baseline Forecast
The Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook produces forecasts for U.S. energy consumption through 2030. Here are the key findings of the 2008 Annual Energy Outlook:
  • Total primary energy consumption, including energy for electricity generation, grows by 0.7 percent per year from 2006 to 2030 in the EIA's baseline forecast. Fossil fuels account for 55 percent of the increase. Coal use increases in the electric power sector, where electricity demand growth and current environmental policies favor coal-fired capacity additions. About 54 percent of the projected increase in coal consumption occurs after 2020, when higher natural gas prices make coal the fuel of choice for most new power plants under current laws and regulations, which do not limit greenhouse gas emissions. Increasing demand for natural gas in the buildings and industrial sectors offsets the decline in natural gas use in the electricity sector after 2016, resulting in a net increase of 5 percent from 2006 to 2030.
  • The transportation sector accounted for more than two-thirds of all liquid fuel consumption in 2006, and 60 percent of that share went to light-duty vehicles. Demand for liquid transportation fuels increases by 17 percent from 2006 to 2030, dominated by growing fuel use for light-duty vehicles, trucking, and air travel. The industrial sector accounted for 25 percent of total liquid fuel use in 2006, but its share declines to 21 percent in 2030.
  • In 2030, electricity use for home cooling is 38 percent higher than the 2006 level in the reference case, as the U.S. population continues to migrate to the South and West, and older homes convert from room air conditioning to central air conditioning. A projected 25-percent increase in the number of households also increases the demand for appliances, and total electricity use in the residential sector increases by 27 percent from 2006 to 2030 in the reference case.

Forecasts on Energy 2028 - The Futures of the US
The graph to the left shows the primary energy sources in American society from 2006-2030. The breakdown shows growth moderate growth for most energy sources, namely liquid fuels, natural gas, and non-hydroelectric renewable energy sources. Nuclear power, hydroelectricity, and coal remain relatively unchanged through 2030. The growth in non-hydro renewables is expected to come primarily through government programs like EISA2007 that support development of ethanol and biodiesel infrastructure as well as the growth of wind power as a source for electricity.





Forecasts on Energy 2028 - The Futures of the US

The graph to the right is included to show the impact of legislation (EISA2007) on the future of energy consumption. The purple line shows how electricity consumption of residential lighting would actually increase by 2030 without the enactment of EISA2007. The blue line shows the new projections now that the Energy Information Administration is accounting for the EISA2007 in its forecasts. Residential electricity use for lighting accounted for about 16 percent of the sector’s total electricity consumption in 2006, making it the second largest use for electricity in households. In the EIA's baseline forecast, electricity use for lighting declines as a result of the lighting efficiency standards in EISA2007, which require general-service incandescent light bulbs to reduce wattage by about 28 percent by 2014, increasing to 65 percent in 2020.



Alternative Scenario #1 - Peak Oil
Peak oil is a point in time when the maximum rate of global oil extraction is reached, resulting in a global decline in oil production. The concept of peak oil was first introduced by M. King Hubbert in 1956. Peak oil scenarios vary greatly depending on the optimism or pessimism of forecasters. Optimistic peak oil scenarios assume that the global maximum for oil extraction will not be reached until 2020 or later, giving nations ample time to develop alternative energy sources or turn to fossil fuels like natural gas as a way of overcoming any threats of a global depression that peak oil could pose. Pessimistic forecasters assume that peak oil has either already been reached or will be reached by 2015. Under this scenario, there is little time to react to a sharp increase in oil prices, creating a chain reaction of negative economic impacts such as a depression.

Drivers of a peak oil scenario:
  • World Demand: Global demand for oil has increased steadily at 1.76% per year from 1994-2006. The Energy Information Administration projects that global demand for oil in 2030 will be 36% higher than 2006 levels, primarily because of an increase in transportation all over the world as more people drive cars, commercial trucks, and travel by plane. Though the U.S. is currently the largest consumer of oil in the world, developing countries like China and India have the highest growth rates in demand for oil.
  • Population: The growth in the world population could also have an impact on the future of oil through changes in oil production per capita, or the amount of oil production divided by the global population. Oil production per capita has decreased from 5.26 barrels per year in 1980 to 4.73 barrels per year in 2006. Decline in the population growth rate has reduced the impact of a decline in oil production per capita, but this is offset by an increase in life expectancies. Though oil production per capita has peaked, oil production still outpaces population growth: the global population increased 6.2% between 2000 and 2005, but oil production increased 8.8% during the same period.

The following graph shows estimates of when peak oil could occur based on multiple studies conducted on the topic:
peakoil



Alternative Scenario #2: Phasing Out Oil

Sweden could serve as a model for the future of the United States if the U.S. chose to copy Sweden's "oil phase-out program." In 2005 Sweden vowed to become the first nation to become oil-free through a 15 year plan that includes making use of renewable energy sources and nuclear power on the path to energy independence.

The objectives of the Swedish plan are:
  1. "Through more efficient use of fuel and new fuels, consumption of oil in road transport shall be reduced by 40-50 per cent."
  2. "In principle no oil shall be used for heating residential and commercial buildings."
  3. "Industry shall reduce its consumption of oil by 25-40 per cent."
The motivations for Sweden's plan are:
"1. We will reduce Sweden’s climate impact
2. We will secure Sweden’s supply of energy in the long term
3. We can become a leading nation in the development of new technology for sustainable use of energy and more efficient use of energy
4. We will strengthen our international economic competitiveness
5. We will use and develop the energy resources from forests and fields, “Sweden’s green gold”

Given the small size of Sweden's population and their low demand for energy relative to the U.S. population, it is unlikely that the U.S. could embark on a similarly ambitious campaign by 2028, but the Swedish initiative could serve as a model for local governments looking to become energy independent or could simply provide solid guidelines for a federal initiative to reduce oil consumption, not merely reduce dependence on foreign oil. Sweden uses the following technologies to reach their goals:
  • Biofuels
  • Solar cells
  • Fuel cells
  • Wind farms
  • Wave energy
  • District heating
  • Heat pumps
In the United States, such a scenario would require a "green technology" revolution that saw huge investments in reducing the cost of alternative energy technology production and installation across the U.S. Currently renewable energy requires too much money to construct power plants when compared to the lower costs of building new coal or natural gas plants. However, recent developments have shown that wind power generation is economically feasible in areas that have high winds. This brings up another obstacle to renewable energy adoption in the U.S.: it is geographically restricted. Many areas that would be good locations for alternative energy plants are remote from large metropolitan areas with higher energy demands and constructed the infrastructure for efficient transmission of alternative energy to large areas is expensive. The EIA's estimates still place renewable energy at 12.5% of electricity production by 2030, and their baseline forecast projects that oil demand will only continue to increase in the U.S.





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srspear 		Latest page update: made by srspear , Oct 4 2008, 11:10 PM EDT (about this update About This Update srspear Edited by srspear


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