Descriptions of the future are called forecasts. As described above, futurists develop more than one forecast for a given issue. We believe that the uncertainties in the long-term future are so large that we cannot rely on just one forecast being at all accurate. Therefore, we develop alternative forecasts, which are called scenarios.

The forecast section is deliberately brief because we recommend that students work on this material themselves. Forecasting is a combination of logic, based on facts and theories, and imagination, based on assumptions and aspirations. Therefore, we cannot possibly do an adequate job forecasting for you or your students. The forecasts here set the stage, but we encourage you to allow yours students to “play in the future.” After all, it’s their future too.


Expected future – what do you think will happen?

One scenario is particularly important, the one that describes what we expect to happen--that is, if nothing surprising happens. The expected future, also called a prediction, is what most forecasters provide. We futurists also describe the expected future, but not as an end in itself, because we do not really believe it will come about, but as a beginning, as a way of starting the discussion about other futures.

The expected future is the result of the extrapolation of current conditions and trends, assuming that they will behave in the same way between now and the time horizon. But expectations are more than just a mathematical calculation; they are also part of our image of the future. What we expect heavily influences what we do. So getting our expectations out on the table early is important

Asking students to extend the past and present trends and conditions into the future is the core of the expectation process. Such forecasting can be highly technical, but that is not our purpose here. Having a discussion about expectations, given the material above, might be all that is required. Others might want to do a little math to see where the numbers lead. As before, that’s up to the individual teachers and students to use this material as they wish.


Alternative futures – what might happen instead?

The biggest difference between futurists and other forecasters is the belief that there are many futures, not just one. The future might become one when it becomes the present, but right now, there is no way of telling which one that will be. Rather we develop a set of alternative futures. If one anticipates the whole set, then we have a much better chance of being prepared for what actually does occur. No guarantees still, except a better chance of being prepared.

At the same time, scenarios are not just anything that could happen. Futurists narrow all the possible things that could happen to what could plausibly happen. Now plausibility is a subjective criterion, to be sure. What is plausible to one person might not be plausible to another, but at least it is more than just what is possible. The difference between a plausible scenario and one that is merely possible is that the plausible scenario has a reason.. It’s more than just, “Well it could happen.” The questions is, “How could it?” The response to that question is actually a story, no matter how brief, on how it could come about. The story has to make sense; it needs to be plausible; an open-minded person could say, “Yes, I can see how it might happen that way.” They do not have to think it will or predict that it will. In fact, even the person telling the story does not have to believe that it is probable, but only that it is plausible. Plausible scenarios are the core of the futuring process.

Ask your students to consider the impacts on the expected future if events X, Y and Z occurred. What might the immediate result be and what might some of the secondary impacts be? Ask them: "what would you need to do if these things occurred?"

In this way as a teacher you enable your students to consider more than just simple cause and effect impacts - you ask them to consider their likely responses, identify emerging needs and generate additional choices and strategies for action. They don’t have to be “right” in the sense of accurate. They just have to conform to the past and present facts as we know them and have a good reason for why things turned out differently than what we expected. This is the fun part of futures studies. So enjoy!